July 7, 2021 14:28:53
USD/CHF looks to be moving higher
We wrote a few weeks ago about the bull flag in the swissie and how a breakout looked imminent after near-term consolidation. The end of last month saw the pair move to the upside beating the post-Fed highs at 0.9237/39. In fact, we made new cycle highs around 0.9272/5 before we pulled back after the NFP data, easing overbought conditions on the daily RSI and having touched the upper Keltner channel.
Prices have found support around 0.92 where a Fib level sits of this year’s high to low move and a bullish candle yesterday has opened the door for buyers to push on above the NFP highs towards the next target just above 0.93 where the next Fib level resides, after which sit the March highs around 0.9373.
NZD/CHF breakout struggling, so far…
We mentioned CAD/CHF last time around and that pair has so far not broken the asymmetrical triangle that looked to have formed. NZD/CHF is at an interesting juncture and is trying to move out of a long-term descending channel that has been in play since the end of February.
Bullish momentum has increased recently and the pair broke out of the channel yesterday, only to retrace the whole of its move higher and close lower on the day. This long upper shadow pattern is bearish and signals a reversal but today has seen another attempt to move higher. We are currently trading right on the 50-day SMA which is acting as resistance with no clear, strong close above. The 100-day SMA capped yesterday’s move at 0.6546 and so is another barrier for the bulls. If prices fail to move upwards once again and stay in the descending channel, then the 200-day SMA at 0.64 is a target.
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