November 1, 2021 14:53:07

USD/CHF falls below 200-day SMA

Since poking above long-term trendline resistance from May 2019 above 0.93 in late September, sellers have been in the ascendancy. The July peak at 0.9274 also looks to have capped the upside.

From here, prices broke the near-term down trendline at 0.9250 and through both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at 0.9215 and 0.9188 respectively. The bearish channel has continued with the major dropping to a swing low at 0.9102 at the end of last week. That marked the fifth straight week of losses.

Below 0.91 and the August swing lows, next support sits at the bottom end of the descending channel around 0.9079. Sellers will then target the next Fib level at 0.9045. The 200-day SMA above at 0.9148 acts as initial resistance.

CAD/CHF downtrend building below 0.75

For the bulls, this cross has flattered to deceive on several occasions over the last six months or so. Prices have tried to push conclusively above 0.75 but this area has proved very strong resistance.

After topping out most recently at 0.7495 in October, prices have fallen back. Today has also seen the August high at 0.7385 cap any buying momentum. The daily RSI has just dipped below the 50 mark and the MACD is picking up.

If sellers can push down through Friday’s low at 0.7360, the next target is a confluence of long-term SMAs (50,100 and 200-day) at 0.7337/24. Any buyers will of course encounter the 0.7450/0.75 zone of resistance.