February 18, 2022 15:35:53

Markets are in zig-zag mode as random geopolitical headlines determine near-term price action. Safe havens currently battle with more pro-cyclical, growth currencies, but we may not know who wins for some time as skirmishes and diplomatic noises potentially come to fruition further down the line. Monday’s market holiday in the US plus Ukraine uncertainties point to investors being reluctant to hold major positions over the long weekend.

AUD/JPY trading sideways above 200-day SMA

This week, a stronger aussie has slightly got the better of the safe haven yen in the classic FX “risk” barometer currency pair. But if we’re honest, the range has been pretty narrow with the potential for an “inside week” highlighting the relative indecision over the last few trading sessions.

Prices are currently trading around and being supported by the three main long-term (50,100 and 200-day) SMAs at 82.30, 82.68 and 82.32. The midpoint of the October to December move also sits in here at 82.51. Bulls will want to break above this week’s high at 83.33 in order to head towards last week’s spike high at 83.98 and then this year’s high at 84.30.

If the evacuation of residents in the eastern part of Ukraine signals a new phase towards conflict, the pair will drop quickly below the SMA support area towards last Monday’s low at 81.54. This year’s low at 80.36, just below the Fib level (23.6%) is next support with the December low at 78.78.